Trudeau pledges to slash greenhouse gas emissions by at least 40% by 2030

Canada has long maintained it would slash emissions by 30 per cent by 2030. In real terms, which would mean lowering GHG emissions from 732 megatonnes to 513 megatonnes.

Speaking at the summit, Trudeau said Canada is “now on track to blow past our old target.” With today’s more ambitious commitment, Canada is forecasting emissions will drop to at least 439 megatonnes by the end of this decade.

Trudeau said countries around the world must heed the advice of climate scientists to do more to prevent catastrophic increases in global temperatures.

“Our priority continues to be battling COVID-19, we rely on science to save lives and develop vaccines, but we must also listen to climate science, which tells us we’re facing an existential threat,” Trudeau said.

WATCH: Trudeau announces new emissions targets

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau spoke to the U.S. Climate Summit on Thursday. 1:18

He conceded it may be tough for Canada, a major energy producer, to cut emissions so deeply, but he said all countries must rise to the challenge.

“Only bold climate policies lead to bold results,” he said, listing off some of the government’s green-friendly policies like investments in public transit and clean energy, a ban on single-use plastics and a promise to plant two billion trees.

“We will continually strengthen our plan and take even more action.”

A recent report from Environment and Climate Change Canada found Canada’s emissions were headed in the wrong direction.

Canada produced 730 megatonnes of carbon dioxide emissions in 2019, an increase of one megatonne — or 0.2 per cent — over 2018.

The government department found emissions are down just 1.1 per cent compared to that 2005 baseline of 732 megatonnes, but the report suggests Canada is making progress.

The Liberal government did not release a new plan today to explain how exactly it intends to get to that 40 per cent reduction.

New target both ‘ambitious’ and ‘attainable’: minister

Environment Minister Jonathan Wilkinson said Thursday the new target is meant to be both “ambitious” and “attainable.”

The focus on a range of 40 to 45 per cent — as opposed to a specific number — is a reflection of the “uncertainty” that goes into modelling long-term emissions trends.

When the Liberals released an updated climate change plan last December, they estimated that the combination of existing and new measures — including a sizeable increase in the national price on carbon after 2022 — would reduce Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions by 31 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030.

With further investments announced in this week’s budget, the Trudeau government projected that Canada could now achieve a 36 per cent reduction.

Getting to 40 per cent or more will require further actions, but Wilkinson defended the decision to set another new target now.

“I think Canadians would say, ‘OK, you demonstrated an ability to actually provide a plan to get a long way, but there’s nine years to go before 2030 and we know from a science perspective we need to do more,’ ” Wilkinson said in an interview with CBC News before Trudeau’s announcement.

‘We do believe that it’s attainable’

“And I don’t think Canadians would say, ‘well, just stop. Thirty-six is it.’ They would say, ‘OK, you don’t necessarily know exactly how you’re going to get there for that final small piece, but we expect you and future governments are going to stretch. You are going to have ambition, you are actually going to make investments next year and the year after and the year after that to ensure that Canada is doing its part.'”

Wilkinson said he has spoken to the co-chairs of the government’s new net-zero advisory panel and that he will be asking them to review the Canadian economy, sector by sector, to determine where additional reductions can be made.

He identified buildings as one area where he believes further megatonnes can be cut.

“We believe that there are opportunities to make further gains in a number of different sectors. And so we do believe that that range from 40 to 45 is attainable,” Wilkinson said. “I will tell you, the farther out you go up that range, the harder it becomes. But we do believe that it’s attainable.”

The energy sector alone — including combustion at power plants, oil and gas extraction, refining and transportation driven by fossil fuels — accounts for 81 per cent of Canada’s total emissions.